Bear market recovery calculator
When the market falls hard, the question is how long until your portfolio is back where it was and what you can do to speed that up. Enter your portfolio value, how far the market fell, your share in stocks, the rebound and long-run return you expect and what you add each month, and this calculator charts the way back. It also shows what it would cost to sell at the bottom and wait before buying back in.
The road back
Portfolio value month by month from the bottom. The dashed line is your old high.
Recovery time for different falls
Years to get back to your old high at your rebound, return and contribution, if the market had fallen by other amounts.
| Market drop | Your portfolio falls | Years, staying invested | Years, no contributions | Years, if you sold |
|---|
How the recovery is modelled
The calculator starts at the bottom of the fall and moves forward one month at a time. Returns compound monthly, contributions are added each month and the old high is the target.
The first 12 months use your rebound figure and later months your long-run return. These are assumptions, not forecasts.
Your fall
Only the stock part of the portfolio follows the market down.
your fall = market drop × stock share
Monthly growth
Annual figures are turned into monthly compounding rates.
monthly = (1 + annual rate)1/12 − 1
Staying invested
Each month the balance grows and the contribution is added.
balance = balance × (1 + monthly) + contribution
Selling and waiting
The balance earns cash interest for the waiting months, then follows the market, having missed the start of the rebound.
Recovery month
The first month the balance is back at or above the value before the fall.
balance ≥ portfolio before the fall
Bear market recovery questions
How long do bear markets take to recover?
It varies a lot. Some broad stock market falls have been made back within months, while others took several years, especially when the drop was deep and the recovery slow. Because nobody knows which kind is coming, the calculator lets you test different rebound and return assumptions.
Why does my portfolio fall less than the market?
Only the stock part of a portfolio follows the market down. Bonds and cash usually fall less or not at all. The calculator applies the market drop to your stock share only, which is why a 60/40 portfolio loses less than an all-stock one.
Do monthly contributions really help?
Yes, a lot. Money invested during a downturn buys at lower prices, so when the market recovers, those purchases gain the most. Contributions also bring your balance back above its old high sooner, even before the market itself has recovered.
What happens if I sell and wait for things to calm down?
You usually miss the strongest part of the recovery. Some of the best months for stocks have come soon after the worst ones. The calculator compares staying invested with selling at the bottom and buying back later, so you can see the cost of waiting.
What return should I expect after the bottom?
Nobody knows. The calculator separates a first-year rebound from the long-run return afterwards, because recoveries often start fast and then settle. Try a cautious and an optimistic set of numbers to see the range.
Is this financial advice?
No. It is a planning tool to help you think through scenarios. Markets can fall further and recover more slowly than any assumption you enter.