Prop firm challenge calculator
A prop firm challenge is a race between the profit target and the drawdown limits, and your position size decides which one you are more likely to hit first. Enter the challenge rules, your win rate, reward to risk, risk per trade and how often you trade, and this calculator runs thousands of simulated attempts to estimate your chance of passing and how failures happen. It then weighs that chance against the fee and what a funded account would likely pay you.
How the simulated attempts ended
Out of 3,000 simulated challenges with your settings.
Pass rate at different risk per trade
The same rules and edge with other position sizes. Too small and you run out of time; too big and drawdown catches you.
| Risk per trade | Pass rate | Fail on drawdown | Run out of time | Expected value |
|---|
How the challenge is simulated
Each attempt plays out trade by trade. A win adds your risk times your reward to risk; a loss takes away your risk. The attempt ends at the target, at a drawdown breach or when the days run out.
Results use a fixed random seed, so the same settings always give the same numbers and a shared link shows the same result.
One trade
Win with your win rate, lose otherwise.
win: + risk × reward to risk, loss: − risk
Check the limits
After every trade, the balance is checked against the static maximum drawdown and the day's loss against the daily limit.
fail if balance ≤ −max drawdown or day ≤ −daily limit
Check the target
Hitting the profit target passes the attempt.
pass if balance ≥ target
Repeat
3,000 attempts give the pass rate and how failures split.
pass rate = passes ÷ 3,000
Expected value
Funded profit per month at your edge, times your split and the months you expect to keep it, times the pass rate, minus the fee.
EV = pass rate × funded payout × months − fee
Prop firm challenge questions
What are my chances of passing a prop firm challenge?
It depends on your edge and how you size trades against the rules. A trader with a small positive edge who risks 0.5 to 1 percent per trade often has a reasonable chance, while the same trader risking 3 percent per trade usually hits the drawdown limit first. The calculator simulates thousands of attempts to put a number on it.
Why does risking more per trade lower my pass rate?
Bigger trades reach the profit target in fewer wins, but they also reach the drawdown limit in fewer losses, and losses tend to cluster. Past a point, the drawdown side wins. The table below the calculator shows your pass rate at several risk levels so you can find the sweet spot.
What is the expected value of a challenge?
It is your chance of passing times what being funded is likely to pay you, minus the fee. If you have a 30 percent chance of passing and a funded account would pay you $1,500 on average, the attempt is worth $450 before a $500 fee, so it loses $50 on average.
How does the simulation work?
Each simulated attempt plays out trades one at a time with your win rate and reward to risk. It stops when the balance hits the profit target, breaks the maximum drawdown or daily loss limit, or runs out of days. Repeating that thousands of times gives the odds.
Does it model trailing drawdown?
This calculator uses a static maximum drawdown measured from the starting balance, plus a daily loss limit. Trailing drawdowns are stricter. Our prop firm drawdown calculator shows how the different types move the breach level.
Are the results a guarantee?
No. They assume every trade is independent and that your win rate and reward to risk hold up under the pressure of a challenge. Real results also depend on discipline, news events and slippage.