Win rate and risk reward calculator
Win rate and risk to reward only mean something together: one tells you how often you win, the other how much each win is worth. Enter both, along with how much you risk per trade and how often you trade, and this calculator shows your expectancy, your expected monthly return and how far you are from break-even on each side. The grid underneath maps every combination, so you can see which mix of the two your trading actually needs.
Expectancy at your win rate, by reward to risk
Your win rate held steady while the size of winners changes. Bars show expectancy in R; a negative result shows as an empty bar.
Expectancy grid
Expectancy in R for every mix of win rate and reward to risk. Red cells lose money; your combination is highlighted.
How win rate and reward to risk combine
Everything is measured in R, the amount you risk on one trade. A win pays your reward to risk ratio in R, and a loss costs 1R.
Expectancy
The average result per trade.
expectancy = win rate × ratio − (1 − win rate)
Monthly result
Expectancy times the number of trades, then times your risk per trade for a percentage.
monthly return ≈ expectancy × trades × risk %
Break-even win rate
The win rate where expectancy is zero at your ratio.
break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + ratio)
Break-even ratio
The ratio where expectancy is zero at your win rate.
break-even ratio = (1 − win rate) ÷ win rate
Win rate and risk reward questions
How do win rate and risk reward work together?
Every trading result comes from two numbers: how often you win and how much you win compared with what you lose. A low win rate can still make money with large winners, and a high win rate can lose money if the losers are big. The grid below the calculator shows every combination at once.
What win rate do I need for a 1:2 risk reward?
More than one in three, about 33.3 percent. The general rule is that break-even win rate equals 1 divided by (1 plus the reward to risk ratio). At 1:1 you need over 50 percent, and at 1:3 you need over 25 percent.
What risk reward do I need at a 40 percent win rate?
At least 1:1.5 to break even, because losses on 60 percent of trades must be covered by wins on 40 percent. The formula is losing share divided by winning share: 0.6 divided by 0.4.
What is expectancy in R?
It is the average result per trade measured in units of risk. An expectancy of 0.3R means each trade makes, on average, 30 percent of what you risked. Multiply it by your risk per trade and the number of trades to estimate monthly results.
Which is easier to improve, win rate or risk reward?
It depends on your style. Better entries and filters tend to raise win rate, while letting winners run and cutting losers quickly raises reward to risk. Improving one usually costs a little of the other, so watch expectancy rather than either number alone.
Does this include fees and slippage?
No. Enter your risk reward after costs if they are significant, for example by using your average real win and loss from your trade log rather than planned targets.