Trading dice roll simulator
Two traders with exactly the same strategy can end a year in very different places, simply because their wins and losses came in a different order. Enter your win rate, reward to risk, risk per trade and how many trades to play, and this simulator rolls the dice for a thousand traders using your numbers. The chart and tables show the spread of results, the drawdowns and losing streaks to expect, and how likely you are to hit your ruin level.
Twenty traders, same system
Twenty of the simulated equity curves, with the median of all thousand in bold. Every line has the same edge; only the order of wins and losses differs.
Risk per trade changes everything
The same system and rolls at other risk levels. Bigger risk raises the best outcomes but makes ruin far more likely.
| Risk per trade | Median ending | In profit | Hit ruin level | Typical worst drawdown |
|---|
How the dice are rolled
Each simulated trader starts with your balance and plays your number of trades. Every trade is a random roll weighted by your win rate. Risk is a fixed percentage of the current balance, so position size shrinks after losses and grows after wins.
Roll a trade
A random number below your win rate is a win.
win if random < win rate
Apply the result
Wins add your risk times your reward to risk; losses take your risk.
balance × (1 + risk × ratio) or balance × (1 − risk)
Track the damage
Each path records its deepest fall from a high and its longest run of losses, and whether it ever fell to the ruin level.
ruin if balance ≤ start × (1 − ruin level)
Repeat 1,000 times
The results are sorted to find the median and the best and worst 5 percent.
Dice roll simulator questions
What does a trading dice roll simulator show?
It plays out your trading system many times with random luck, like rolling a die for each trade with your win rate deciding the odds. Every path uses the same edge, yet they end in very different places. That spread is what luck alone does to a trader with your numbers.
Why do traders with the same edge get such different results?
Because the order of wins and losses is random. One trader hits a losing streak early, cuts size or quits; another starts with a winning run and gains confidence. Over enough trades the edge shows through, but over 50 or 100 trades luck can dominate.
What is risk of ruin?
The chance that your account falls to a level you treat as game over, such as half its starting value. It depends heavily on risk per trade. The table below the chart shows how quickly risk of ruin climbs as you risk more on each trade.
How long a losing streak should I expect?
Longer than most people guess. With a 50 percent win rate, losing streaks of six to eight in a row are normal over a few hundred trades. The simulator reports the typical longest streak so you can size positions to survive it.
What does the seed number do?
It fixes the random rolls, so the same settings and seed always produce the same paths. That makes a result shareable. Press Roll again, or change the seed, to see a new set of random outcomes.
Does a positive edge guarantee profit?
Over a very large number of trades, it makes profit very likely, but not certain over any given stretch. The simulator shows how many paths are still losing after your chosen number of trades, even with a positive expectancy.